Murder Up---End Near?

bu Mike James

In 2020, the United States experienced the largest one-year increase in murders since the country started keeping records in the 20th century, according to crime data and criminologists. According to the FBI, there was a 20.9 percent spike in killings nationwide in the first nine months of the year.

Jeff Asher, an analyst who studies crime data, said, "Like everything else in 2020, the crime data was a disaster. There was a huge spike in murder, and it's hard to say just how bad it is, but it's fairly clear we are going to see the largest single-year rise."

Experts believe the pandemic has played a large part in the increase in homicides, but it has also likely led to a decrease in nonviolent crimes. FBI data shows nonviolent crime decreased by about 8 percent in 2020.

But let us not get too alarmist about this increase in murders. Is this a warning sign that the end is near? Not likely.

Let us look at three major U.S. cities: Washington D.C., New York City, and Chicago. In 2020, D.C. had a 20 percent increase in murder with nearly 200 homicides. New York killings rose almost 40 percent for a total of about 450 in 2020. In Chicago, in 2020, there were 769 homicides—274 more than in 2019. But just looking back over recent history shows these numbers are not as alarming as they appear.

In the 1990s, Washington D.C. regularly recorded well over 300 murders a year. New York City had over 2,000 killings in a single year in the 1990s. In 1991, Chicago recorded 922 homicides. Crime in these cities and many other cities in the United States is far below what it used to be.

Globally crime rates are also down over the same period (1990-2018). Since about the mid-1990s, the crime rate worldwide has been slowly declining. What about other quality-of-life indicators?

The world poverty rate has been cut in half since 1990. Almost 2 billion people lived in extreme poverty 25 years ago. Today, that number is less than a billion. That's still too much, but the idea that things are getting worse for people instead of better is just false. On the whole, there are fewer starving people in the world today than thirty years ago.

In the 1950s, there were about six international wars per year, with around 250 people per million dying war-related deaths. Today, that number is around one war per year, and less than ten people per million dying from war every year.

What about life expectancy? In 1558, a person born in England could expect to live to the age of 22. That didn't change much over the next few hundred years. The average life expectancy never even got to 50 until 1907. Today, it is about 81.

Having said all that, the world is still full of problems and issues. We still have a pandemic that has killed over 2 million worldwide. The capability for other nations to make nuclear weapons has increased. The nuclear club has increased over the past thirty years. India, Pakistan, and North Korea are now part of the club, joining the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. There are several other negative indicators in the world today, but we need to be careful in reading too much into indicators on the negative or positive side.

Always remember to think about what Scripture says about the time of the end when you look at world conditions today. Matthew 24:21-22 indicates that the years right before Christ's second coming will be unlike any time in world history. There will also be false Christs and false prophets performing great signs and miracles (Matthew 24:24).

Don't forget Daniel 11:40. As far as I can tell a King of the North and King of the South has not yet been revealed. Things are rather peaceful in the Middle East right now as compared to other times in history.

One thing Scripture is clear about is how Christians should always be operating in the world. We should be doing the things our Father expects of us (Matthew 24:45-51). There is nothing wrong with watching what is happening in the world (Matthew 24:42), but don't let that engross you to such a degree that you forget how to love God and love your neighbor.

Sources: "An Unprecedented One-Year Spike in U.S. Homicides," by Devlin Barrett, The Washington Post, December 31, 2020.

"Chicago Homicides Rose Sharply in 2020," Associated Press in the Washington Post, January 2, 2021.

"922 Homicides Made 1991 Year to Forget," by William Recktenwald, The Chicago Tribune, January 1, 1992.

World Crime Rate & Statistics 1990-2021, https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/crime-rate-statistics.

"6 Reasons the World Is Actually Better Now than It Ever Has Been," by Neil Bulson, August 26, 2016, brobible, https://brobible.com/life/article/reasons-world-better-now-than-ever/.