Watch China
by Mike James
In a new memo dated January 26, 2023, current U.S. Strategic Command leader General Anthony Cotton, acknowledged that China had surpassed the United States in the number of its Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launchers but not in the number of its actual ICBMs nor the number of nuclear warheads equipped to them.
"The number of land-based fixed and mobile ICBM launchers in China exceeds the number of ICBM launchers in the United States," Cotton said in the memo.
According to House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Alabama), the Chinese are rapidly expanding their nuclear capabilities.
"The CCP is rapidly expanding its nuclear capability," Rogers said. "They have doubled their number of warheads in two years. We estimated it would take them a decade to do that."
The U.S. has about 400 ICBMs and 450 launchers. China was estimated to have 300 ICBMs last year, but now we know they have more than 450 launchers. The logical assumption would be China will have more ICBMs than the U.S. in the future.
But China lacks capabilities in the other two areas of a nuclear arsenal: strategic bombers (aircraft) and submarines. Despite Chinese deficiencies in their strategic bomber capabilities, they do have more strategic bombers than the U.S. and Russia.
The weakest link of China's triad of nuclear forces is in submarines. The Chinese have six submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons. The U.S. has 14, and Russia has 11.
But the most important statistic is the actual number of nuclear weapons.
A 2021 estimate stated China had 350 nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists. The United States and Russia had at least ten times more, with estimated stockpiles of 3,800 and 4,500 warheads, respectively.
China is trying to close the gap in nuclear capability with the U.S. and Russia. Why? It could be a variety of reasons, and not likely to be that they want to attack the U.S. But by creating a comparable nuclear force, it would lead any future U.S. President to carefully calculate helping Taiwan in a war with China. It might also force the U.S. to pay for expanding nuclear capabilities.
Rogers went on to comment, "It is not an understatement to say that the Chinese nuclear modernization program is advancing faster than most believed possible. We have no time to waste in adjusting our nuclear force posture to deter both Russia and China. This will have to mean higher numbers and new capabilities."
Having worked in the intelligence community for over 33 years, I am aware of the fact there are always intelligence gaps and vulnerabilities in our intelligence collection. This fact was made very apparent when the Chinese intelligence balloon incident occurred last week.
One of the interesting things about this incident was the admission by U.S. officials that at least four other balloon incidents occurred over Hawaii, Florida, Texas and Guam over the past few years. We only recently discovered this due to what we learned from the most recent balloon.
One method of intelligence collection is known by the acronym MASINT (measurement and signature intelligence). MASINT can include radar and electromagnetic signals as well as other measurements and signals. What we learned from this balloon allowed us to put some puzzle pieces together and discover the records of the other balloons.
Bible prophecy is similar in some ways to intelligence collection. There will always be some unknowns, vulnerabilities, and gaps in our ability to understand prophecy. One of these questions involves the Israel mentioned in prophets like Jeremiah and Ezekiel right before Christ returns. Could the U.S. be a type of Israel in the end time? Are we in the end time? These are questions that people in the Church have different answers to. I would rather we keep our options open when it comes to prophetic scenarios.
I learned in the intelligence community that when everyone was sure of something, sometimes those perceptions were proved to be wrong. So, let's all provide grace to each other in the area of prophetic scenarios. Let's keep in mind the old saying of not throwing the baby out with the bath water. In my reading of prophecy, there are several things we just don't know.
One thing we can be certain of is history does repeat itself, and God is the same yesterday, today, and tomorrow. If a nation claims YHWH as their God and does not follow Him, negative consequences will follow.
Sources: "Pentagon Sees Faster Chinese Nuclear Expansion," by Shannon Bugos, December 2021, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-12/news/pentagon-sees-faster-chinese-nuclear-expansion.
"U.S., China Or Russia — Which Country Calls The Shot In The Domain Of Long-Range, Nuclear-Capable Strategic Bombers?," by Ashish Dangwal, The Eurasian Times, December 29, 2021, https://eurasiantimes.com/us-china-or-russia-which-country-leads-domain-of-strategic-bombers/.
"China Now Has More ICBM Launchers Than the U.S., Lawmaker Confirms," by Andrew Thornebrooke, The Epoch Times, February 7, 2023.
"China has put longer-range ICBMs on its nuclear subs, U.S. says," by Tony Capaccio (Bloomberg) in The Japan Times, November 19, 2022, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/19/asia-pacific/china-longer-range-icbms-submarines-us/.
"Fact Sheet: Russia's Nuclear Inventory," Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-russias-nuclear-inventory/
"China Spy Effort is Vast, U.S. Says," by Ellen Nakashima, Shane Harris, John Hudson and Dan Lamothe, The Washington Post, February 8, 2023.